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If Stephane Dion can capture 45.6% of Bob Rae's delegates then he becomes the next leader of the Liberal party. Any less than that and Michael Igantieff wins.

Update: Scott Brison just went to Ignatieff.

Candidate Delegate Change Percentage
Dion 1782 +808 37.0%
Ignatieff 1660 +179 34.5%
Rae 1375 +243 28.5%

So what happens with Rae? Looks like he is setting his delegates free. And he is not announcing how he is going to vote personally.

With Dion's vote going up by 808 you can see that Kennedy really delivered from his 884 pool of delegates. Though it unclear how many Dryden supporters went to Dion.

Candidate Delegate Change Percentage
Ignatieff 1481 +69 31.6%
Rae 1132 +155 24.1%
Dion 974 +118 20.8%
Kennedy 884 +30 18.8%
Dryden 219 -19 4.7%

Michael Ignatieff is really in trouble now. It looks like it down to Rae and Dion now. The question is does Kennedy drop out now, play king-maker and shorten this day. Dryden is rambling on right now and it sounds like he is releasing his delegates to go where the want to go. That being said he only has 219 delegates.

Update: Dryden went tp Rae.

Update II: You can hear the blog reaction to the results here.

And Kennedy has gone to Dion.

is up on CTV.ca - of course they pick the comment that will get me kicked out of the blogosphere ;)

Things are getting fascinating - Brison and Volpe (192 and 156) are worth a lot more than Hall Findlay (130). It seems that Rae has more momentum than Dion right now. I can't believe this but it looks like Rae will win.
The Conservative dream shot was on the CBC, Bob Rae flanked by Scott Brison and Joe Volpe - is this the group they want to present to the country?

Things are getting fun now. What a morning, the Congress is buzzing. So as I reported before if Ignatieff was under 30% he would be in a lot of trouble. Guess what - he is officially in a lot of trouble. Dion has a lot of momentum right now as Hall Findlay came his way this morning and released delegates seem to be going his way. Now Scott Brison has dropped out in favour of Bob Rae.
Here are the Round 1 results

Candidate Delegate Change Percentage
Ignatieff 1412 +35 29.3%
Rae 977 +34 20.3%
Dion 856 +103 17.8%
Kennedy 854 +34 17.7%
Dryden 238 0 4.9%
Brison 192 +11 3.9%
Volpe 156 -70 3.2%
Hall Findlay 130 +84 2.7%

And we are left with five candidates.

I was at an Ignatieff party when the results came in and we all knew that they spelled trouble. I spent quite a bit of time talking with an Iggy delegate would did not vote out of protest. He was upset at the leadership of Ignatieff so he sat out and will support Dion.
Jason Cherniak was kind enough to bring Stephane Dion and his wife Jeanine by to introduce me and I was told that she reads my blog. How cool is that.

I watched Hall Findlay from the floor and, as you know, I like her so I enjoyed the speech. Scott Brison delivered a good speech - his video was a direct rip off of An Inconvenient Truth but that probably played well in the room. I watched Joe Volpe ('nuff said) from the bloggers room as well as Ken Dryden. Dryden's speech must have went over well because my blood was boiling when he declared that I am not Canadian because of the views I hold. I went back to the floor for the final four. Stephane Dion was really flat and was unable to finish his speech because it was too long, I think he hurt his chances.
I thought Gerard Kennedy delivered the best speech of the evening. Bob Rae? Using no script was a bad idea, there were no applause points so no chance for the crowd to show their support. Michael Ignatieff's intro was way too long and he was at he condensending best.

All in all I was disappointed. I was hoping to be wowed but no one brought the wow factor. We will see what it all means.

Update: John Ivison has some excellent (remember by definition, I agree with them) reviews of the speeches for Kennedy, Rae and Ignatieff.

but they cannot run the vote. Voting was supposed to start at 3:00PM but due to technical difficulties voting will not begin until around 6:00PM.

Update: 5:28PM and the polls are open.

These numbers came via the Ignatieff camp so factor that into your equations. Here are the delegates who showed up for each camp and the percentage of the "super weekend" numbers.

Ignatieff: 1059 77%
Rae: 689 73%
Kennedy: 619 76%
Dion: 550 73%
Dryden: 161 68%
Brison: 125 69%
Volpe: 105 47%
Hall Findlay: 33 73%

Inserting this into my spreadsheet, Round 1 voting, without ex-officois, is:

Ignatieff: 31.7%
Rae: 20.5%
Kennedy: 18.6%
Dion: 16.4%
Dryden: 4.8%
Brison: 3.7%
Volpe: 3.1%
Hall Findlay: 1.0%

CTV News Montreal came by the bloggers room to do some interviews and after I was interviewed for the 6:00 News I turned the tables and interviewed Rob and the interview can be heard here. (2:02)

More buzz from the convention floor and this time the file should work. You can Download file here. (1:03)

John Ivison, of the National Post, is blogging the convention and can be found here. I met him at an Igantieff function last night - a very nice guy but man what a giant. I am not a short guy and he towered over me! Welcome to the 'sphere.

Here is a morning podcast update. (1:15)

I am sure the delegates at the convention did not want to wake up and see a poll like this.

Ipsos-Reid
Support under Ignatieff, Rae, Dion, Kennedy

Conservatives: 38%, 38%, 35%, 37%
Liberals: 25%, 27%, 27%, 25%
New Democrats: 18%, 18%, 19%, 18%
Bloc Quebecois: 9%, 9%, 9%, 11%

So much for a convention bounce!

Here is a quick audio post to help you get the feel of the blogging room here at LibCon.

Update: Stephen Taylor has a video up interviewing Anne McLellan.

Here I am at LibCon2006 in the bloggers room. Sweet. I have scoped out the territory and decided to do a quick post here before I go down to the main floor and watch the Paul Martin speech. I was down there for a bit but it is a bit boring at the moment.
One question, why Mark Tewksbury?
Anyways, I'll be back.

So the Liberal convention is mind-numbingly boring for a reason - Paul Wells reports that Howard Dean was late.
Hopefully they get things together by the time I get there 'cause I am not missing much tonight.

Live reports from the Liberal convention floor and interviews with anyone I can arm wrestle into agreeing to come on.

Consider this a one-stop shop for links to blogs run by people attending the Liberal convention.

Stephen Taylor
Tasha Kheiriddin
Calgary Grit
Jason Cherniak
Cerebus
Scott Tribe
Wayne Chu
Warren Kinsella
Nik Nanos
John Lennard
Paul Wells
A BCer in Toronto
A View From The Left
Maxwell's House
The World According to CDL
Dave Hayes
John Ivison
Jason Morris
Antonio Di Domizio
Cerberus
InfoScapeLab